An April 2026 Sberbank analytical memo published by Black Mirror hackers assessed a decisive Russian military victory over Ukraine at only 7%.

An April 2026 Sberbank analytical memo published by Black Mirror hackers assessed a decisive Russian military victory over Ukraine at only 7%. The memo assigned 32% to a frozen conflict with partial sanctions relief, 22% to an informal freeze without a peace agreement, and 15% to another 2-3 years of war. Other scenarios included peace on Russia's terms at 12%, compromise peace at 5%, peace on Ukrainian/European terms at 2%, and unpredictable events at 5%.